EEUU

Bush enfrenta un año de desafíos: El giro de la guerra a la paz

Autor: Robin wright

Fecha: 1/1/2004

Traductor: Celeste Murillo, especial para P.I.

Fuente: Washington Post

Bush Faces a Challenging Year: The Turn From War to Peace

George W. Bush faces the most daunting diplomatic challenges of his presidency in 2004, a year when his administration will be out to prove that his daring and controversial foreign policy was able to achieve its goals. After three years of waging war, much of this year will be spent in a frantic search for peace.

The difficulty of Bush's election-year agenda is reflected in its breadth: Re-creating an entire nation in Iraq, transforming beleaguered Afghanistan, defusing the nuclear crisis with North Korea, pursuing the elusive Middle East peace and ending the world's longest civil war in Sudan while helping to rebuild war-torn Liberia.

Looming above them all is the global fight against terrorism.

"It's not going away," Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said in an interview this week. "We have a better idea of whom we're fighting, but they're still out there and they're still coming after us. We have to protect the homeland and we have to go out and get them where they are."

The success or failure of Bush's diplomacy in 2004 will shape the world well beyond America's borders and will heavily influence global events for the next decade, U.S. foreign policy experts say.

"Not since the height of the Cold War has an American president faced so many foreign policy challenges -- in Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, Pakistan, the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iran. Simply managing these problems is going to test the capability of the Bush administration," said Walter Russell Mead, a Council on Foreign Relations fellow.

"Then there's the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the
collapse of America's image and the worldwide tide of anti-globalization. These are the kinds of challenges that don't lend themselves to quick and easy solutions," he said.

How the United States fares abroad may also be the biggest single factor in determining whether Bush wins a second term, according to some analysts.

"This is the first presidential election perhaps since Vietnam that is going to turn on the way the public views the success or failure of foreign policy. This is going to be the first election that turns on something this administration never wanted to do -- get involved in nation building with more than 100,000 troops engaged in the process," said Mark Snyder, senior vice president of International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that monitors global hot spots.

To achieve its goals, America may have to mediate a new peace with key allies, Powell acknowledged. "I'm going to work very hard in making clear to our friends in Europe and elsewhere in the world that America is a partner: spend more time with them, spend more time listening to them and finding ways that we can cooperate together," Powell said in a telephone interview as he continued to recuperate from surgery for prostate cancer.

Iraq

The administration faces two tight deadlines in 2004 to convert war-torn societies into democracies. To help end the U.S. occupation of Iraq by June 30, Washington is going to reach out to the international community for help with the political transition, military occupation and economic reconstruction, Powell said.

"I've got to generate more international support, get the U.N. back in there in force, both humanitarian and to play a political role. I think NATO is more and more willing to play a role in Iraq," Powell said. The United States is also hoping within the next two months to win agreement from dozens of countries to relieve most of Iraq's $120 billion in foreign debt.

Even more difficult will be the complex formation of a provisional government to assume sovereignty and write new laws.
"Getting an agreement is going to be tough and divisive. If we fail, then there could be internal strife and possibly civil war. We'll have no chance to build a strong, stable and unified Iraq unless we get the political process to work first," said Jessica Matthews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Afghanistan

The other deadline is for June elections to select Afghanistan's first democratic government, a goal that may only be partially met, Powell said. The United States has not yet achieved the goals of its 2001 war, notably wrapping up the former Taliban government and capturing al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

Several factors -- including widespread instability, ongoing attacks by Taliban remnants, delayed reconstruction and the inability to develop a new political culture -- may force Afghanistan to defer elections for parliament and hold only a presidential poll.

"That's certainly a possibility," Powell said. "It's still an open question.
The presidential election is the one that is key and that has to come first whether it's together or separated [from parliamentary elections]."
Some foreign policy analysts worry more about U.S. failure in Afghanistan than in Iraq, as former warlords gain more control of the rugged country.

"Iraq gets more attention and resources because of the huge stakes for Bush and the visibility of what is happening in Iraq. Afghanistan is not getting the resources it needs and is now going to hell in a handbasket," warned Brookings Institution President Strobe Talbott, an undersecretary of state in the Clinton administration.

North Korea

Washington hopes to schedule a second round of six-nation talks to resolve the crisis over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, after December talks fell through.

"We're prepared to seek a diplomatic solution and not be cowed or blackmailed or pushed into some deal with North Korea where we're paying them for their misbehavior," Powell said.

But the administration also remains split over policy, with some conservatives hoping talks will fail -- with blame placed on Pyongyang -- so Washington can isolate and destabilize the government. In the meantime, Powell said he hopes Libya's pledge to surrender its weapons sends a strong signal to Pyongyang.

Pakistan

The Islamic world's nuclear power is the big wild card for 2004, especially after two assassination attempts on President Pervez Musharraf last month. Washington believes he "enjoys broad support," Powell said, while conceding deep concern about Pakistan's extremist groups.

"We still have confidence in President Musharraf and we're standing behind him," Powell said. But experts warn that Pakistan, pivotal to the war on terrorism, is vulnerable to a sudden change in political status.
"Pakistan is probably the most dangerous place in the world, with the dangerous combination of nukes, religious extremism and territorial disputes. Conflicts on its borders represent the highest danger of unleashing waves of global instability," said Moises Naim., editor of Foreign Policy magazine.

Other pressing U.S. goals include the perennial but deadlocked Arab-Israeli conflict and curtailing weapons of mass destruction, Powell said.
But U.S. experts warn that the administration may pay a price for paying too little attention to other brewing flash points, including Russia's democratic reversals, growing anti-globalization fervor, and the collapsing economies and political systems in Latin America.