Irak, Medio Oriente y Asia

Los EE.UU. Buscan las Armas de Medio Oriente

Fecha: 30/12/2003

Traductor: Analí T.B., especial para P.I.

Fuente: Stratfor

U.S. Goes After Middle Eastern Weapons
Dec 22, 2003

Summary

The United States is turning its military successes in Iraq into leverage for pressuring uncooperative regimes in the region. Washington has cut a deal with Libya, has Iran's cooperation -- if not capitulation -- and will likely box in Syria in the short term.

Analysis

Middle Eastern states long opposed to the United States are now restructuring the foundations of their foreign policy. The capture of Saddam Hussein did more than score a political, and possibly military, U.S. victory in Iraq. It also gave Washington the freedom to pursue its next agenda item for reshaping the Middle East more to its liking, namely by removing any and all threats by nonallied states -- or their militant allies -- by weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Within one week, Iran and Libya agreed to allow snap inspections by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). At the same time, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation is reportedly interrogating a top Pakistani nuclear scientist for links between the nuclear programs of Iran and Pakistan. Syria -- another, lesser threat -- will likely be a next target. Damascus is thought to have a chemical weapons program only, but even that will be on the U.S. hit list.

Washington needs to ensure that none of the Muslim states it still considers to be "states of concern" -- Iran, Libya and Syria -- can or will provide al Qaeda with access to weapons of mass destruction. Their promises not to aid al Qaeda will mean little to Washington: Syrian President Bashar al Assad can pledge cooperation until he is blue in the face, but the White House cannot be sure that Assad will not topple through coup, assassination or some other form of regime change, and therefore it cannot accept verbal assurances. Instead, the United States will now move to dismantle all WMD programs within these states.

Libya already has folded. Tripoli on Dec. 19 moved to pre-empt a U.S. offensive by announcing that it would abandon its WMD program and allow snap inspections. Libya knows what much of the rest of the world is just now realizing -- the next phase in the U.S. war against al Qaeda is ensuring that other potential weapons aren't available for al Qaeda's taking.

Libya understood that if the United States were to gain control over Iraq, the next goal would be to go after regional governments that might ally with al Qaeda. Tripoli likely would not side with the militant group at the risk of a fight with Washington. From Washington's perspective, however, only complete cooperation and full disclosure of the WMD program would be acceptable evidence that Tripoli was not in cahoots with al Qaeda.

In exchange for full cooperation, Libya will likely get several cookies -- most importantly, a lifting of U.S. sanctions.

The Iran-Libya Sanctions Act prevents U.S. energy firms from investing in Libya. For that matter, no U.S. company can do business there. Libya's energy industry was built with U.S. technology -- now decades outdated. Reviving links with U.S. energy firms is a top priority. Moreover, Libya already has taken several other steps, such as backing off its Machiavellian machinations in central Africa and paying off the families of those killed in the Lockerbie bombing.

Iran is still in the game, playing a close hand of cooperation -- allowing inspections and "suspending" rather than ceasing its nuclear program. Tehran has some pretty good cards. First, its influence in Iraq -- especially among the southern Shia -- gives it leverage. It also has a functioning, oil-fed economy, a professional and experienced military, savvy political leadership and possibly some invaluable intelligence on the leadership and operations of al Qaeda.

Washington cannot pressure Iran too directly, so it has taken an indirect approach. The Israelis, likely at the behest of Washington, are threatening to blow up Iranian nuclear facilities, since senior military officials claim that Iran's WMD program poses the single greatest threat to Israeli national security.

Last week, Iran agreed to allow snap inspections by the IAEA. Reports surfaced Dec. 22 that an instrumental figure in developing Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, is under house arrest. He is being interrogated, possibly by U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation agents, for connections between Pakistan's nuclear program and Iran's. Tehran reportedly has named several Pakistani scientists as aiding Iran's nuclear program. FBI interviews, along with Pakistani cooperation, might provide important details the United States later can use to contain Iran.

For its part, Syria cannot even afford the ante. Damascus is thought to have chemical and possibly biological weapons, but certainly no nuclear program. With a tiny economy, limited resources, a decrepit military and few powerful allies, Syria will find it impossible to resist U.S. pressure. The United States doesn't really expect Damascus to form an alliance with al Qaeda. At the same time, it cannot and will not simply take Syria's word. Instead, officials will ask for complete cooperation on a number of issues, including inspections of Syrian WMD facilities.

Washington is not likely to stop until it has all three states' WMD programs under lock and key. What comes next will be the critical issue. Containment of their WMD programs will strengthen Israel's regional position, giving it more freedom to maneuver openly in regional political matters. It also will give Israel more freedom to impose peace agreements -- whether formal or de facto -- on Syria and the Palestinians.

The weakening of Iran, Libya and Syria -- along with the U.S. seizure of Iraq -- will also reshape regional dynamics. Algeria, Morocco and even Egypt will have less to fear from Libya. Jordan will see Syria as emasculated and, therefore, as less of a long-term threat. Saudi Arabia is so embroiled in its own domestic conflict that it cannot fully relax, even as Iran adjusts itself into fuller alignment with United States.

Reconfiguring Libyan, Iranian and Syrian military postures, however, still will resonate throughout the region. The political ramifications also will be felt. Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi's reversal after more than a decade of anti-American rhetoric might strike a sour note within some Libyan circles. Nearly everyone already perceives Bashar al Assad as weak -- internally and externally -- and totally dependent upon his father's Old Guard cronies. Whether he can survive an escalation in diplomatic conflict with the United States is unclear. Whether he can survive a restructuring of Syria's fundamental political and military position in the Middle East is unlikely.

For the United States, it is imperative to reconfigure the region in order to fit its ideal. Defeating al Qaeda means, in large part, preventing al Qaeda from finding any powerful allies or powerful weapons in the region. Al Qaeda typically operates on a low-tech basis and isn't likely to seek weapons of mass destruction any more advanced than a Boeing 767. Still, Washington cannot, and is not, taking the chance.