Izquierda Marxista

¿Tendrá Rusia su “Día de la Marmota”?

Autor: Boris Kagarlitsky

Fecha: 10/1/2004

Traductor: David Lewin. Especial para P.I.

Fuente: Counter Punch

With the Russian parliamentary elections over, the pro-Kremlin "United
Russia" party with its more than 36% of votes looks like the only real
winner. It also succeeded to get a massive victory in single-member
constituencies.
Together with some independents who differ with United Russia in
nothing but
name, openly pro-Kremlin forces have got about 240-280 seats. And if we
add
Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democrats who will vote for anything if properly
paid,
and Rodina block which claims to be a force "opposing the government
but
supporting the president", things are very much under control for the
Kremlin puppet-masters.

Alternative vote count organized by the Communists could be seen online
on
election night at www.fairgaime.ru . It clearly gives a different
picture,
putting United Russia first but only with 32% instead of 36% and
showing
that left liberal Yabloko Party actually passed the 5% threshold and
should
have been allowed to enter the Duma. However even this vote count can
leave
no doubt that United Russia did win the election. Ironically, the
alternative vote count gives the Communist Party (KPRF) even less votes
than
the official one (12,6% instead 12,7).

While the liberal media is mostly interested in the failure of liberal
parties (Yabloko and the Union of Right-Wing Forces which will not be
represented in the Duma), the real key event in these elections, which
will
most likely influence the development of politics in the near future,
is the
demise of the Communists. Of course, the Communists blame everything on
hostile media coverage. But neither of these factors is new. In fact,
in the
previous elections they have done much better, even in circumstances
that
were objectively worse.

There has always been anti-Communist propaganda in the media, but the
difference this time was that quite a few KPRF voters actually believed
it;
and they did so because the negative coverage in the media confirmed
their
own experience with the party. That is why it is clear that this year,
the
Communist Party's disastrous performance is of its own making. The KPRF
has
always been an eclectic coalition of groups held together not by
ideology,
but rather by "clientelist" ties and a a bureaucratic apparatus.

This coalition cannot last forever, and now it is in the process of
"decomposing." Traditionalist, conservative voters are moving to United
Russia, nationalist voters are moving to Homeland and the LDPR; and
quite a
lot of left-wing voters are so frustrated with the Communist Party that
they
preferred not to vote at all, or to vote "against all." Now KPRF is
struggling for survival. It has got only 53 MPs but even these are
moving in
different directions.

Some are ready to join Rodina. Others are calling for a reform in the
party.
Some are pretending that nothing happened. Regional organizations are
insisting on changing the leadership and it seems that current party
boss
Gennadiy Ziuganov has little chances to stay after the congress, which
was
initially planed on December 12 but is now postponed till January.

Of course, the outcome of this election is a defeat for the democratic
process in Russia, but it also has a positive aspect because our
political
system has never really been democratic. Today, the authoritarian
character
of the political system has simply been exposed. In the long run, it
will
probably have an illuminating and invigorating effect on civil society
and
society as a whole -- spurring people to action and self-organization.

The 1999 election demonstrated that the ruling elite leaves nothing to
chance or to democracy, which amounts to the same thing. The succession
crisis that year revealed the extent to which a change of president
causes
problems for the entire ruling elite. After taking over the Kremlin
with the
backing of the Yeltsin-era family, the Putin team gradually began to
force
their predecessors out of key posts in politics and the economy.

Nothing was done to solve any of strategic problems facing the country.
What
is more important, however, is that even the real priority of Kremlin's
team
- replacing old oligarch with the new ones - was not achieved. This is
a
slow process and even in the best-case scenario the new oligarchs will
just
be coming into their own in 2007 and 2008. The closely controlled
transfer
of power in 1999 and 2000 ensured that the first wave of oligarchs
enjoyed a
lengthy grace period. But even that sort of grace won't be enough to
help
the second wave.

Now Putin is launching his campaign for the second term and there will
hardly be any problem. But after wasting a first term four more years
is
clearly not enough. The only thing to do is to prevent another transfer
of
power -- at least not in 2008, and by no means via the ballot box.

On Dec. 7, revision of the Constitution became inevitable because
voters in
Komi-Permyatsky and Perm approved a referendum on merging the two
regions.
Such a merger would require a Constitutional amendment.

United Russia and its new comrades have enough votes to amend the
Constitution and extend the presidential term or remove the limit on
the
number of terms a president may serve. If all goes as planned, Vladimir
Putin will become president in 2008. And in 2015 as well.

We are witnessing the progression from "managed democracy" to an
authoritarian regime with a democratic facade. The Communist Party,
which
provided the ideal opposition in the old system, must be replaced with
a new
lapdog opposition. The Rodina bloc fits the bill. It has no
organization to
speak of, and its political viability will last only so long as its
leaders
are allowed to appear on state television.

Naturally, Rodina looks impressive as a newcomer who managed to enter
the
Duma with 9,1 % of votes. Alternative vote count done by the Communist
Party
gives Rodina even more votes.

The liberal parties called for capitalism and bourgeois democracy, but
unfortunately the two only go together in wealthy countries. In a
country
where 80 percent of the population is shut out of consumer society and
living in poverty, democracy inevitably turns into an attack on private
property.

Is there a future for political opposition in Russia? Yabloko is no
longer
in parliament, and the Communist Party has lost forever the
conservative,
nationalist voter, who has gone over to Rodina, LDPR and United Russia.
The
Communists' notion of a "red-white union" is no longer viable.
Internecine
squabbles within the party are heating up.

The Kremlin's main goal in Sunday's election was to eliminate
parliamentary
opposition as a political institution. In this it was successful,
though the
downfall of the Communist Party and Yabloko could give rise to a new,
non-parliamentary radical political resistance and a new left. The
widespread refusal to vote speaks for itself. We did not stay home
because
we're lazy; I say this as someone who has avoided taking part in our
farcical electoral process for a decade now. We vote with our feet. And
this
is the last democratic right that hasn't been taken away from us.

Candidate "none of the above" is already raking in 20 to 25 percent of
the
vote in the single-mandate districts. In some constituencies election
failed
to attract the necessary minimum of votes and there will be additional
elections organized later.

This is a symptom of the changing political reality. There is no point
in
trying to build a political campaign on this discontent, however.
People who
don't vote will not unite without a positive ideology.

It will probably also be good for the left in helping it to overcome
the
impasse symbolized by the ineffectiveness, opportunism and nationalism
of
Gennady Zyuganov's Communist Party. Political defeats can have a
stimulating
effect, but much will depend on the people themselves and the lessons
they
draw from what has happened. Chances of forming a New Left party are
now
discussed not only by disaffected Communists and radical intelligentsia
but
also by left liberals who earlier voted for Yabloko.

The new opposition will arise not from parliamentary intrigues and
petty
politicking. It will only emerge when we refuse to play by the rules
imposed
on us by the current system. Sooner or later democratic longings will
fuse
with social protest. The finale will be extremely interesting. But how
long
will this take?

At a meeting held by the Georgian opposition last month, one speaker
remarked that he had been 6 years old when Shevardnadze took power in
the
republic. Now his own daughter was 6, and he didn't want her to grow up
as
he had under Shevardnadze's thumb.

I'm reminded of the movie "Groundhog Day," whose hero wakes up every
morning
to find himself reliving the day before. But who needs images from
Hollywood. My generation still remembers the stability of the Brezhnev
era.
And my daughter is also 6, by the way.

Boris Kagarlitsky is director of the Institute of Globalization
Studies.