EEUU

Elecciones 2004: ¿Quedará afuera la Costa Oeste?

Autor: Marc Sandalow

Fecha: 8/3/2004

Traductor: Celeste Murillo, especial para P.I.

Fuente: San Francisco Chronicle

Will West Coast be left out?
Bush, Kerry to clash in Midwest, not in California

Even with John Kerry's huge primary victory and President Bush's trip to the state this past week, California is not shaping up as a battleground state in the 2004 presidential election.

Strategists for Bush and Kerry are mapping out an electoral plan for the eight-month presidential campaign that focuses on a handful of Midwestern states -- Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin -- as well as Florida (where Kerry campaigns today), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico and perhaps West Virginia and Arizona.

It's a California Catch-22. Any scenario in which California is closely divided in November involves Republicans easily winning the national contest. Any scenario in which the national contest is closely divided involves Democrats easily winning California.

A rising economic tide or surge in Bush's popularity that makes a Republican California victory possible would almost certainly first push the upper Midwestern states in Bush's direction. Just as the West was mostly an afterthought in this year's primary schedule, the Pacific time zone will not be the focus of the general election.

It explains why Bush's new television commercials are hard to find in California, why Air Force One has spent more time in Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Philadelphia than in Los Angeles, San Francisco or Seattle, and why Kerry invested so heavily in Tuesday's Ohio primary.

"If Bush needs California, he's not going to win it. If he wins it, he's not going to need it,'' said Gary Jacobson, a professor of political science at UC San Diego.

No matter how many times Bush or Kerry visits the state, there is no reasonable set of circumstances under which the rest of the country evenly splits its electoral votes, leaving it to voters in El Cerrito or El Centro to tip the White House to one party or another. California's 55 electoral votes will be either the foundation of the Democratic base, or a surprise that lards a Republican landslide.

The 2004 electoral map puts Bush in a potentially stronger position than he was four years ago. Since the 2000 election -- which Bush won with 271 electoral votes to Al Gore's 266 (one electoral college voter abstained) -- 18 states have gained or lost electoral votes, with the biggest gains in states that Bush won. If Bush were to win the same states he did in 2000, his electoral lead would expand to 278 to 260.

That means Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, must hold on to all the states Gore won and add either a large state like Ohio, Missouri or Florida or several small states (picking up New Hampshire and West Virginia would put Kerry and Bush at a 269-269 tie and throw the election to the Republican- controlled House of Representatives). If Bush can win in Wisconsin, where Gore won by 5,708 votes, or in New Mexico, where Gore won by just 366 votes, he will pad his electoral lead.

The closeness of the 2000 vote provides tantalizing opportunities for both sides. There are 18 states where Bush won or lost by six percentage points or less, sketching a rough map of where the 2004 campaign will be fought. Some of those states figure to be less competitive in 2004. Tennessee, for example, which was Gore's home state yet favored Bush by about 80,000 votes, is expected to be solid Bush country. Washington, which Gore won by 139, 000 votes, and Oregon, where he squeaked out a 6,765-vote victory, are expected to be more reliably Kerry country in November.

The Bush campaign began airing slick new television commercials Thursday, with uplifting string music and colorful images trying to boost the president's image in at least 17 states. The ads will air in places where Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd said they will reach "soft Democrats and independents.''

That apparently does not include California, where residents will see the ads only if they are watching national cable networks on which they will run.

Republicans insist they are making California a priority, arguing that the election of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger proves a Republican can win a statewide election. Bush's allies note that Californians, like other Americans, rallied behind the president after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. They say Latinos support Bush in greater numbers than they do other GOP candidates, and that if the economy begins to show strong signs of recovery by the end of the summer, California might vote Republican as it did in six consecutive elections before 1992.

"California is definitely in play, and we have a real chance to win it in November, and we're going to put our money where our mouth is in that regard, '' said Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Privately, several Republican officials on both coasts said decisions about how hard to compete in California have yet to be made, but the Bush team, further encouraged by Schwarzenegger's ballot victories last week, is keeping its Golden State options open.

California Republican chairman Duf Sundheim said GOP registration already has gone up 250,000 since last year, and he expects to add 400,000 voters to their ranks before November's election.

Democrats dismiss GOP interest in California as little more than a strategic head fake, aimed at raising money, helping build GOP support for candidates further down the ballot -- such as Bill Jones, who is challenging Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer -- and forcing Democrats to expend resources in California.

"By virtue of Arnold's existence, they will try to make it look like a competitive state," said Willie Brown, the former San Francisco mayor and a veteran of California politics.

But Brown said he does not believe Republicans have illusions about actually winning the state's 55 electoral votes. In the 2000 campaign, Gore easily beat Bush 54 percent to 42 percent in California.

"They will do it to benefit their senatorial candidate, their Assembly candidates, and to tie Democrats down,'' Brown said.

Democrats point out that Schwarzenegger, unlike Bush, is pro-choice, pro- gun control and pro-gay rights and has a record praised by environmentalists.

"They can't believe that seriously, in their wildest imagination, that an anti-choice, anti-environment, pro-war, pro-gun president can win in California. It just can't happen,'' Democratic state chairman Art Torres said. "It's a playground (for Republicans), because they have enough money to throw away. (Bush) has got enough money ... to force us to spend our money, even if he knows he can't win in California.''