Irak, Medio Oriente y Asia

Una Eternidad Política

Autor: Aluf Benn

Fecha: 27/10/2004

Traductor: Analí T.B., especial para P.I.

Fuente: Haaretz

A political eternity

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon won a major victory yesterday in the Knesset for his disengagement plan when it was accepted by a large, clear majority of most of the MKs, most of the Likud faction, and the coalition - with what one government source called "a Jewish majority."

The Knesset adopted the government decision to end the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank, and for the first time granted approval in principle to the evacuation of settlements from the Land of Israel.

Sharon's message after his victory is that his determination proved itself. With the help of the Labor Party and Yahad, which guaranteed his majority, Sharon managed to face down the pressures for a referendum on the disengagement, unafraid of the threats from his senior ministers. He did not change a thing in the decision he brought to the Knesset, and this time was not dragged into compromises like he did before he won approval for the plan in the government.

The contacts to guarantee the majority went on until the last minute, with close coordination between cabinet secretary Yisrael Maimon, who became the operations officer for the prime minister in the Knesset, and Labor whip MK Dalia Itzik. Those two worked out the arrangements that kept the Arab MKs away from the plenum, and all day they made sure the majority was firm.

"We won a victory in an important battle, but there are many more battles ahead," they summed up in the Prime Minister's Office.

The big question is whether after the Knesset's approval, the plan has reached the point of no return. Is the withdrawal from Gaza and the northern West Bank a done deal, no matter what happens down the road?

Sharon is promising to execute the disengagement and the people around him in his office want to believe that there's no way back, despite the political crisis and the rupture in the ruling party. But despite the impressive success in the Knesset, the plan still faces four main obstacles:

l The evacuation compensation law. Next week, the Knesset will vote in the first reading of the Implementation of the Disengagement Plan Law, which authorizes the government to evacuate settlements and compensate those evacuated. Then there will be debates in the committees, and a second and third reading. The parliamentary process is long and tedious,

and the law could be blocked at any stage. Sharon's bureau believes the law relatively easy to promulgate.

l The evacuation decision. After all the necessary legislation is completed, the government still has to decide, in February, March or May, on the actual evacuation. It will be a decisive moment, which will either ignite or shut down the evacuation machinery. There's a political eternity between now and then.

l The political crisis. That is Sharon's most urgent problem. After the impressive Knesset victory he has to go back to his party's arena, where he has been beat up many a time. The "referendum or resignation" ultimatum by ministers Netanyahu, Livnat, Katz and Naveh only worsens the split in the Likud, and this, together with the threats from the National Religious Party, will force the prime minister to choose between a referendum, elections or bringing Labor into the government. For Sharon, that's a choice between the bad, the terrible and the least likely. A referendum or elections could delay or even foil the disengagement, and risk Sharon his seat. Broadening the coalition will save the plan, but it is not clear how he can do it, given the opposition in his party. The determination he demonstrated yesterday before the vote may not be enough.

l The terror. Sharon keeps reiterating there will not be any withdrawal under fire. In the army and among the prime minister's new disciples on the left, there are some who think that is an excuse prepared in advance to avoid actually carrying out the disengagement at the last minute - something for the protocol, to be pulled out at the right time to prove that Sharon conditioned the entire affair on quiet. It is difficult to predict if the terror will prevent the withdrawal, and in any case, the political road until then is very, very long.