Recta Final de la campaña presidencial

Se estrecha el “campo de batalla” cuando la campaña presidencial llega al final

Autor: R.W. Apple Jr.

Fecha: 31/10/2004

Traductor: Celeste Murillo, especial para PI

Fuente: New York Times

Focus Narrowing as Close Contest Nears Finish Line

The 2004 presidential campaign is ending as it began, focused with blazing intensity on no more than a dozen hard-fought states, with the tinglingly close contest between President Bush and Senator John Kerry depending most, both parties agree, on three pivotal states: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The candidates have invested tens of millions of dollars on advertising there, deployed armies of field workers and spent hundreds of hours on the stump, including visits in the race's final weekend. With the furor over a new Osama bin Laden tape filtering through the campaigns, both men crossed through Midwestern swing states on Saturday and are to appear in Florida on Sunday.

As a result, cities like Orlando, Pittsburgh and Columbus, and their suburbs, have watched the struggle from close range while Chicago, Dallas, New York and Los Angeles have squinted at it from bleacher seats.

In the end, the outcome is likely to be decided by what political pros call "the ground war": the effort by both parties to get every supporter to the polls on Tuesday. Although there are almost limitless ways either candidate could reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to win, whoever wins two of the big three states would have an advantage that would be difficult to overcome.

With only 72 hours until the polls begin opening, Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, appeared to be trending Mr. Kerry's way, with most but not all opinion surveys showing him ahead by about three percentage points. Mr. Bush has failed to dent the four suburban Philadelphia counties, whose liberal attitudes on social issues like abortion and gun control have overshadowed their economic conservatism.

Florida, with 27 electoral votes, was agonizingly close four years ago, with far-reaching consequences, and it is the hardest of the big states to read this year. If anyone holds an advantage, it is probably Mr. Bush, if only because of the influence of his brother Jeb, the governor. But the Democrats, energized by the sting of their agonizing defeat in 2000, seem to be benefiting more from the outpouring of early voters.

Here in Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, Mr. Kerry has capitalized on job losses during the Bush administration. He seems to hold a tenuous lead as volunteers from both parties pour into the state, often seen as a microcosm of the nation, to get out the vote. He has taken to carrying a lucky buckeye in his pocket. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio, and the state has gone with the winner in all but two elections since 1892.

"It's as close as it could conceivably be," said Eric Rademacher, who directs the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll. "Closer than I've ever seen before. Close here and several other states. We may not know the outcome until mid-November."

Searching for ways to salvage a victory even if beaten in the big shows, both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush belatedly began wooing the voters of Michigan (17 electoral votes). A win there could very nearly make up for a loss in Ohio. They have also intensified their pursuit of a troika of smaller Midwestern states that Al Gore won by narrow margins in 2000: Minnesota and Wisconsin (10 each) and Iowa (7). All three are treacherously close this time, with Ralph Nader a real threat to Mr. Kerry in Minnesota, a state notably fond of third-party candidates.

Colorado (9), New Mexico and Nevada (5 each) and New Hampshire (4) are all in play as well, with the potential of contributing to a winning equation.

A series of hairbreadth finishes could plunge the nation into treacherous straits, with lawsuits in multiple states, a far more complex prospect than the legal contest in 2000, which was confined to Florida. Several suits have already been filed. But the huge numbers of newly registered voters could confound all the forecasts.